Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com
Monday, 31 August 2015
Platinum Wealth Partners' Insights
Any serious investor who believes that the CPI numbers (etc.) created by governments everywhere are real and accurate is the sort of bigger fool everyone is looking for - to support many ventures. Now, sooner or later, the markets are going to wake up to this reality,inclusive of China, to Greece to Brazil and the USA, plus many more - and then watch the proverbial "you-know-what ' hit the fan.
In turn, the spin doctors and other Pinocchios will be fully employed in very secure long-term activities as they seek to baffle the feeble-minded towards ratification and consumption. So yes, Eric Sprott is right.- so Is Noam Chomsky; so was John Steinbeck..
Never forget Arthur Anderson, Enron , China the Fed. and all the rest. For as always, remember this utter wisdom - figures lie, only because liars figure.
Beware, and good luck!
August 31, 2015
Eric showed the above table in his presentation. It shows that the true level of inflation, a persistent increase in prices, has been sitting around 10% since 2011. Indeed, a far worse picture than what the US Federal Reserve paints. The Fed argues that prices have been rising below 2% for the past four years. That said, the Fed doesn’t include food, petrol and taxes in its inflation index. This is similar to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation calculation.
But then who needs petrol and food, right?
So it’s not surprising that Jim Rickard’s, over at Strategic Intelligence, argues that there’s no worse forecaster in the world than the US Fed.
You may have noticed each year that Australian healthcare companies raise their premiums by roughly 6%. Well, costs are also rising over in the US.
I’ve been speaking to many US citizens up here at the conference. The word on the street is that Obamacare is one of the worst policies of all time. It’s legally forced those who can’t afford health care to buy; at the same time, hiking insurance premiums for those who require modest healthcare.
And it’s only going to get worse…
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation shows that prices rose 0.3 percent during the 12 months ending in July, well below the 2 percent annual pace the Fed considers healthy. A narrower measure excluding food and oil prices, which the Fed regards as more predictive, increased 1.2 percent over that same period.
Venezuela seems to be hovering on the edge of tipping into hyperinflation. Or perhaps it has already fallen into the abyss. Given the paucity of official data -- the none-too-believable official figures were last published in February -- it's a little hard to tell.
Industrial overcapacity, a build-up of corporate debt and a $5 trillion stock-market slump are making it harder for Premier Li Keqiang to prevent a deeper economic slowdown. The combined earnings of China’s five biggest banks are projected to rise 2 percent this year, the least since at least 2004, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
There’s a saying common in education circles: Don’t teach students what to think; teach them how to think. The idea goes back at least as far as Socrates. Today, what we call the Socratic method is a way of teaching that fosters critical thinking, in part by encouraging students to question their own unexamined beliefs, as well as the received wisdom of those around them. Such questioning sometimes leads to discomfort, and even to anger, on the way to understanding.
What I really worry about is that transition from one financial scheme to the next is never done peacefully. The hegemon that has the printing press, that has the reserve currency, they don’t just sit back and say we’ve had our time in the sun. Now it’s your turn. No, they fight as hard as they can to protect and defend that. That’s my biggest concern.
In fact, the mainstream spin machine is going into high speed the more negative data is exposed and absorbed into the markets. If you know your history, then you know that this is a common tactic by the establishment elite to string the public along with false hopes so that they do not prepare or take alternative measures while the system crumbles around their ears. At the onset of the Great Depression the same strategies were used. Consider if you've heard similar quotes to these in the mainstream news over the past couple months:
A Passing Thought...
Friday, 28 August 2015
The ‘Black Monday' stock market turmoil on 24 August saw the FTSE 100 index plummet 14% below its peak of almost 7,000 points in February.
Investors across the globe began panic selling stocks, particularly in commodities, amid fears of the much anticipated growth slowdown in China.
While about £96bn was wiped off share values in the UK blue chip index, the Dow fell 1,000 points on opening and the Shanghai Composite experienced total losses of 35% since June.
Hymans Robertson put the total pain for UK defined benefit (DB) schemes at a staggering £30bn surge in aggregate deficits in a day, as equities values and bond yields headed south.
Commentators are divided on whether the event was merely a market correction or an indication of more chaos to come.
But what many agree on is the fact that China is no longer the world's economic growth engine, posing the question of where future investment returns will come from.
In the year to July, China's customs agency reports that imports from Australia are down by $15bn dollars on the same period last year - a loss which is already equal to 1% of Australia's GDP, and many other countries stand to lose out to similar degrees. China's imports overall are down by 14.6% over 2015. Find out what happens if this decline continues for the rest of the year - or worsens - and how that loss compares to each country's GDP
Eventually, even at near zero interest rates, the amount of debt becomes too high, relative to income. Governments become afraid of adding more debt. Young people find student loans so burdensome that they put off buying homes and cars. The economic “pump” that used to result from rising wages and rising debt slows, slowing the growth of the world economy. With slow economic growth comes low demand for commodities that are used to make homes, cars, factories, and other goods. This slow economic growth is what brings the persistent trend toward low commodity prices experienced in recent years.
A strange thing happened fifteen minutes after stock markets opened for regular trading on Friday, August 21, 2015. At least some people on the nationally prominent MarketWatch website were privileged to see in advance what would prove to be the full-day losses for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) and the Standard & Poors 500 (SPX) indices. This harbinger or revelation of what was to come occurred six hours and fifteen minutes before the market's close. The uncanny trend projections, or perhaps target prices, were made available while the Dow was down about 180 points -- more than 350 points above its astonishing Friday close.
There is an almost touching faith that markets are rigged when they loft higher, but unrigged when they crash. Who's to say this crash isn't rigged? A few things about this "crash" (11% decline from all time highs now qualifies as a "crash") don't pass the sniff test.
"Unless we recognise that, and recognise that the productivity challenge and the fiscal challenge are intimately linked, and we have to deal with both of them, then we will go on continuing to repeat the mistakes that we've been making and that will get us into a situation that none of us want to be in."
Dr Parkinson earlier told a room of more than 90 corporate, community and academic leaders that productivity reform could not be detached from fiscal reform.
Take the combined size of all stocks traded in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa, multiply by two, and you'll get a sense of how much China's market value has slumped since the meltdown started. Shanghai-listed equities erased $5 trillion since reaching a seven-year high in June, half their value, as margin traders closed out bullish bets and concern deepened that valuations were unjustified by the weak economic outlook.
The four other countries in the BRICS universe have a combined market capitalisation of $2.8 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
APPLY Tips From The Best
Thursday, 27 August 2015
In my last post I pointed out that over the last half century, every time the year-over-year change in Real Household Net Worth went negative (real household wealth decreased), a recession had either started, or was about to. (One bare exception: a tiny decline in Q4 2011, which looks rather like turbulence following The Big Whatever.) Throughout, click for source. -
The problem: we don’t see this quarterly number until three+ months after the end of a quarter, when the Fed releases its Z.1 report for the the preceding quarter. The Q2 2015 report is due September 18.
But right now we might be able to roughly predict what we’re going to see four+ months from now, in the report on our current quarter, Q3, which ends September 30. We’re a bit over a month from the end the quarter, and we have some numbers to hand.
The U.S. equity markets are down roughly 7% year-over-year
PRETORIA (Reuters) - South Africa's economy shrank for the first time in more than a year during the second quarter of 2015, raising the risk that labour disputes and slowing Chinese demand for commodities could push it towards recession.
The economic strain will inhibit the central bank from raising rates further to protect a weak currency and target inflation, while also torpedoing government efforts to keep deficits in check and protect its credit ratings.
A record 107,500 migrants crossed the EU borders last month to outstrip the previous monthly record in June of 70,000. During the first seven months there were nearly 340,000 migrants, up from 123,500 last year,
Not only how we deal with the world and make sense of it, or interact with each other, but also how we look at ourselves and understand our own nature, existence, and responsibilities.
This is the IT version of my book The Great Field (available in Kindle books).
The enormous losses reflect the deep fears gripping markets about how the world economy will fare amid a deepening economic slowdown in China.
APPLY Tips From The Best
- ► 2016 (135)
- No Doubt FED Is Manipulating Inflation Numbers, & ...
- Post Crash Alert: Devastated Pension Plans Adding ...
- Financial Advice Fails - As Everybody Becomes Poo...
- 2015 Bear Market, Not 2008 Bear Market: Because It...
- Global Financial System Headed Towards Collapse, &...
- Buckle Your Seat Belts - Markets Heading For Freef...
- Rock Star China Analyst Paints Bleak Picture, & Mo...
- ALERT - 23 Stock Market Crashes Are Now Occurring...
- Jim Rogers Thinks Deal To Bypass US Dollar Possibl...
- How Economic Growth Fails, & More
- Saudi Petro Bond Issue Presses Liquidity As Curren...
- China Shocks World With Currency Devaluation On He...
- Since 2000 Real GDP Grew 31.6%, But Wages Are Flat...
- China's Crisis - Economy That Has No Clothes, & Mo...
- CRISIS: Government Revenues, Expenditures and Debt...
- Eurozone Retail Sales Plunge As Concerns Spread, &...
- Chinese Real Economy Faces Extreme Pressure, & Mor...
- World Financial Markets Mess Unprecedented Disaste...
- Europe Entering Long Economic Dark Age, & More
- ▼ August (19)